After being a somewhat niche subject AMOC (Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation) has suddenly started making it to the mainstream media. This weekend alone (10/02/2024) I counted three articles about the Ocean Circulation.
Table of contents
Open Table of contents
A little history
So lets start with why my interest in the subject. Going right back to my time at Leeds University and my Ecology degree I have had a deep seated interest in all things climate change related. I must admit I often got the ‘Gulf Stream’ and AMOC confused but they are closely related so hey ho. Why the interest, simple really I never liked being cold and as our climate is heavily influenced by the warm water coming up from the southern ocean via AMOC it seemed relevant!
What is it?
See my article here for an outline of the processes and mechanisms in play. Note the table of temperatures at similar latitudes with / without the influence of the AMOC to illustrate why it is important.
Why now?
Well what seems to have fired up the media is this article Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course) in Science by By René van Westen which seems to have stirred the hornets nest in the mainstream media.
Summary of results
The Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point which will accelerate the pace of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere especially Europe. The paper summarises this could be a drop in temperature of more than 20oC in as little as a decade. One positive in the paper is the discovery of a physics-based and observable signal to indicate the tipping point. See the graph below which illustrates how quickly once reached the climate reacts.
Suggestion in the paper is that the tipping point could well be reached in less than a decade and rapid climate change for Northern Europe would rapidly follow. At this point the train has left the station and there is not much we can do to stop it. Best buy a new woolly hat!
Update: Recent estimates put the change at 3 to 7 degrees C.